THRESHER / METHODOLOGY← back to the desk

Methodology · II.10

Limitations — what this engine cannot see

The honesty page. Published verbatim at /methodology/limitations:

  1. TA sees price and volume only. No fundamentals, no news, no filings, no macro. A perfect technical setup walks into a guidance cut blind. Gate G5 (earnings veto) is the only event-awareness in v1.
  2. All indicators here are derivatives of the same price series (except volume) — "independence" of families is partial by construction.
  3. Confidence is uncalibrated until §7 of the design doc ships. Treating it as a probability before then is exactly the mistake the UI labeling exists to prevent.
  4. Backward-looking volatility: ATR-sized stops assume tomorrow's volatility resembles the last 14 bars. Regime breaks violate this.
  5. No execution modeling in v1: slippage, spreads, and commissions are not in the R:R math. Real results will be worse than displayed math by those costs; the History page will measure the gap.
  6. Free-data caveats: Yahoo volume and intraday bars carry quality issues (design doc §11.4); every response carries its data timestamp.
  7. Nothing here is financial advice. The engine reports the technical structure and the arithmetic of a defined-risk setup. The decision, and the risk, belong to the user.